The Politburo meeting analyzed the current economic situation: economic operation is stable and changing, and employment ranks first in the "six stability" countermeasures
Under the circumstance that China's economy is facing some new problems and challenges, and the external environment has also undergone obvious changes, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 31 to analyze and study the current economic situation and make arrangements for economic work in the second half of the year.
The judgment of the Chinese economy at the highest level and the next response strategies have since been unveiled.
The reporter of "Daily Economic News" noted that in the relevant content reported at this meeting, the phrase "the current economic operation is stable and changing" was put forward that was rarely mentioned before, which is extremely concerning. In addition, the meeting also stressed that it is necessary to do a good job in the "six stability" work of "stable employment, stable finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment, and stable expectations". Among them, "stable employment" is put in the first place.
The Politburo meeting pointed out: "The current economic operation is stable and changing, facing some new problems and challenges, and the external environment has undergone obvious changes. It is necessary to grasp the main contradiction and adopt highly targeted measures to resolve it. ”
The reporter noted that compared with the previous meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on April 23 this year, although the theme was also to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work, the judgment of the current economic situation at this meeting was quite different from before.
The Politburo meeting in April pointed out: "China's economic cyclical situation has improved, but the structural and deep-seated problems restricting the sustained improvement of the economy are still prominent, there are still many problems to be overcome in the 'three major battles', and the world economic and political situation is more complicated." It is necessary to enhance the awareness of danger, persist in being problem-oriented, and focus on resolving outstanding contradictions and problems. ”
Why did the decision-makers put forward the judgment of "stability and change" at this meeting?
Judging from the relevant judgments made at the meeting, "stability" is still the general background of China's economic development at present. The meeting pointed out that the economy maintained an overall stable and stable trend in the first half of the year. The main macro-control indicators are in a reasonable range, and the economic structure continues to be optimized.
Judging from most of the previously released economic indicators for the second quarter, the performance of China's economy still reflects strong resilience. For example, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 16 showed that China's GDP growth rate in the first half of the year reached 6.8% year-on-year. In terms of quarters, the first quarter increased by 6.8% year-on-year and the second quarter increased by 6.7%, both of which are significantly higher than the target of "GDP growth of 6.5%" set in this year's government work report.
While the "stable" situation is maintained, where is the "change" reflected? Judging from the relevant expressions of the meeting, the decision-making level has a clear understanding of this, that is, "the external environment has changed significantly".
Recently, people from all walks of life can also observe clear signs of changes in the external environment: First, the United States has repeatedly provoked trade disputes between its trading partners and made various non-binding commitments that pay lip service, which has greatly disrupted the international economic and trade order and the momentum of world economic recovery, causing widespread disgust in the international community.
Second, at present, many economies have a clear economic trend that is not as expected. Hua Ercheng, former chief economist of the World Bank in China, previously told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that at present, developed economies such as Europe and Japan have weakened domestic demand, and important international economic organizations have also predicted that even if there is no trade friction, the world economic growth rate may decline in the next few years.
Zhang Ming, chief economist of Ping An Securities, commented on the judgment of "stability and change" put forward by the decision-making level, saying that the current macro policy adjustment is a marginal adjustment under the premise of "stability and change", and its purpose is to alleviate the obvious economic deceleration and risk release that may be caused by the "resonance" of external negative shocks and domestic factors, and the relevant statements do not mean that the direction of macro policy will undergo a fundamental change.
"Six stability" to maintain healthy economic development
In addition to the part of the meeting that is closely related to the expression of "stability and change", the reporter also noted that the decision-making level continues to pay close attention to maintaining the stability and continuity of the current economic policy.
The meeting pointed out that in the second half of the year, it is necessary to deeply promote the supply-side structural reform, fight the "three major battles", accelerate the construction of a modern economic system, and promote high-quality development. These expressions continue the central authorities' consistent stance on economic work since the end of last year.
In order to achieve the goal of maintaining stable and sustainable economic policies and economic operation in a reasonable range, what specific measures will be proposed?
The reporter found that the six "stability" mentioned in the report: "stable employment, stable finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment, and stable expectations" are expected to become the principles and goals of all economic work in the second half of the year.
Li Chao, chief analyst of Huatai Securities Macro, analyzed the "Daily Economic News" reporter in combination with the relevant statements of the meeting, saying that in the deployment of the second half of the year, the meeting first mentioned "to maintain the overall economic and social stability", and put it before "deeply promoting supply-side structural reform", he believes that this reflects the change of key work, compared with adjusting the structure, more prominent and stable growth. "In the specific work deployment, the first article uses six stable words, which we believe fully shows that under the downward pressure of the internal economy and external shocks, it is necessary to avoid systemic risks through stable growth, and highlighting the stable word in the second half of the year will become the main theme."
Among these "six stability", "stable employment" is placed in the first place. What is the significance of emphasizing the importance of employment?
The reporter noted that on July 25, Ha Zengyou, inspector of the Employment Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, explained in detail the close relationship between employment security and economic growth at a press conference. He pointed out that China has roughly 910 million working-age people, and about 770 million people need to be employed in urban and rural areas all year round; at the same time, more than 11 million new jobs must be guaranteed every year; the national urban survey unemployment rate should be controlled within 5.5 percent, and the registered unemployment rate should be controlled within 4.5 percent. "To maintain the basic situation of employment, the most important thing is to rely on economic growth. In terms of our country's economic fundamentals and employment absorption capacity, in general, the completion of these employment tasks requires GDP growth to remain at about 6.5. ”
The reporter also noted that at present, China maintains sustained and stable employment, and there is indeed a relatively good foundation. Earlier, Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that under the background of progress in structural adjustment, China's employment rate has shown a significant upward trend. At present, a series of industries with the characteristics of new technologies, new industries, new formats and new models have relatively high employment levels, such as the well-known express logistics industry has created many jobs.
Judging from the relevant expressions of the meeting, among the "six stability", two are related to foreign economy, namely "stable foreign trade" and "stable foreign investment". At the same time, the meeting also deployed a series of specific measures related to continuing to expand opening up and ensure the healthy development of foreign economy. For example, it was pointed out that it is necessary to continue to study and introduce a number of major reform measures that have worked and worked. It is necessary to implement the major measures of expanding opening up and greatly relaxing market access, promote the in-depth development of the "Belt and Road", and carefully hold the first China International Import Expo. In addition, the meeting also emphasized the need to "protect the legitimate rights and interests of foreign-funded enterprises in China".
Li Chao analyzed to reporters that it is expected that in the future, the opening up of the financial service industry, the opening up of the manufacturing industry, the exploration and development of free trade ports, and the opening up of regional economic policies will usher in a more open situation. Coupled with the influence of the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up, the unexpected reform and opening up is expected to strengthen the trend of capital inflow into China.